CHINA: Wenchuan Earthquake
Management - Ground Realities
Guest Column by Dr Sheonandan Pandey
(The views expressed by the author are his
own)
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has
consistently been improving its space based
infrastructure. In 28 years since the first
successful launch of Dong Fang Hong-1
Satellite into orbit on 24 April 1970, the
PRC has demonstrably scaled many a
reckonable technological step. The space
missions that the PRC launches today
include: recovery capsules and non-capsule
remote sensing satellites; communication/
broadcasting satellites; metrological
satellites; science satellites; engineering
test satellites; positioning satellites;
and, manned space satellites. China’s goals
and objectives for going into orbit with a
variety of space assets including manned are
predictably similar to those that drove the
Russian and the US- to gain national
prestige, and to signal wealth, commitments
and technological prowess.
Development of space infrastructure has wide
ranging applications, which includes meeting
environmental challenges. Earth observation
(EO), telecommunications and navigation
systems together can be used to monitor
evolution of fault lines, landslides,
subsidence, seismic tremors and outburst of
volcanoes. Some of the components of the
space infrastructure such as the Global
Navigation Space System (GNSS) and space
based augmentation system (SBAS), Geographic
Information System (GIS), miniaturized
computer components, automatic control and
in-field and remote sensing have veritable
potential to provide useful input to
disaster management information systems.
As being earthquake prone country, the PRC
is live to the need to merge the traditional
earthquake prediction methods, tools and
techniques with the modern technology based
western approaches. There have been 9
earthquakes larger than a grade of 8 on
Richter scale in north-south earthquake zone
from 1739, and 7 of them after 1897, when
the greatest one was at Haiyun in 1920 and
at Chayu in 1950, both of them measured 8.5.
The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12th,
2008, measured 8, and was strong enough to
sway buildings in Beijing (1500 km) and
Shanghai (1700 km). In Wenchuan earthquakes,
the worst hit areas included Beichuan and
Qingchuan with earthquake measured at 11,
with the maximum being 12 by the Chinese
seismic survey standards.
It was cataclysmic natural disaster. It left
5 million people homeless, killed 69170
people and injured 368545 others. As many as
18830 people are yet officially listed as
missing ones. Notwithstanding, cracks
in Tangjiashan Barrier Lake in Beichuan
County had posed danger of inundating area
inhabited by 1.3 million people. It took six
days to dig 475 meters long and 12 meters
wide diversion channel to divert 89000 cubic
meters of water. Life in the affected areas
of Sichuan and adjoining provinces in
southwest China could limp back to near
normalcy not until late July 2008 despite
deployment of over 133000 People’s
Liberation Army (PLA) and People’s Armed
Police Force (PAPF) personnel.
After five months of
hectic rescue and relief operations, the
Chinese State Council declared termination
of its “General Headquarters of Earthquake
Relief” on 14th October 2008. In
its resolution, the State Council eloquently
noted the contributions of “local people and
officials in the affected areas, members of
the PLA and the PAPF, and people from all
circles under the direct leadership of the
party organization and governments in the
affected areas”. In finality, the State
Council meeting declared that the earthquake
relief had come to a phase of
rehabilitation, which was to take about
three years to complete. This was
simultaneously the 26th and the
last meeting of the General Headquarters of
Earthquake Relief, set up under the
Chairmanship of the Chinese Prime Minister
Wen Jiabao to oversee the relief and rescue
operations.
The resolution, tabled by the Chinese
Premier, had unequivocal support of all
those who wield present and hold prospect
for future Chinese leadership such as vice
Premier Li Keqiang, vice Premier Hui Liangyu,
State Councilor and State Council Secretary
General Ma Kai, and State Councilor and
Minister of Public Security Meng Hianzhu.
While a bygone issue, it is a puzzle that
the Chinese leadership did not have a word
about the contribution of China’s space
based infrastructure in the whole gamut of
disaster management.
In this backdrop,
the paper goes to study the role, and
thereby, throw light on the capabilities of
China’s space based infrastructure in
disaster management during the Wenchuan
earthquake. The paper aims at bridging
information gap and drawing lessons from the
Chinese experience. The focus of the study,
accordingly, lay on: the system requirement
and China’s space assets; Wenchuan
Earthquake and the Support Function of the
Chinese Space Based System; and last but not
the least, the efficacy of the Chinese space
assets in disaster management. As space
assets are characterized to have dual use,
the paper would peep into the plausible
military applications of the Chinese space
assets.
System
Requirement and China’s Space Assets
Chinese
earthquake prediction research traditionally
takes cue from intuitive techniques, much of
which went to look into and draw inferences
from unusual events before the earthquake.
It included changes in the ground water
levels, strange animal behaviour and
foreshocks. In a blog, Li Shihui, a
researcher with the Institute of Geophysics
and Geology, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS),
claimed absolute relationship between
incidents of drought and earthquake. He
credited Geng Qingguo, Wang Chenmin, Ren
Zhenqiu, and Wand Dixing for their
predictions, much ahead May 12 Wenquan
earthquake.
While crude in
form, the Chinese traditional approach to
earthquake prediction does have a window on
scientific factors. Earthquake produces
seismic waves. The first wave detected by
the modern seismological stations is called
P-wave. The Chinese system goes by the
premise that the animals are susceptible to
sonar stimulants and hence, change in the
behaviour of animals follows detection
P-waves days and hours ahead of occurrences.
Interestingly, the modern age earths
scientists do as well draw on P-wave to
track back the time and epicenter of earth
quakes.
The track record
of this Chinese approach has been not that
bad. Haicheng city in northeast China’s
Liaoning province was hit by earthquakes on
04th February 1975. It measured
7.3 Richter scale. It was again hit in
November 1999. The intensity was relatively
low at 5.4 Richter scale. While damage to
property was inevitable, prediction in
advance 4-5 days saved a large number of
precious lives. However, in contrast, in the
case of July 1976 Tangshan earthquakes and
May 2008 Wenquan Earthquake, the Chinese
systems did not have inklings, much less a
clear cut prediction.
Precise
prediction hitherto eludes despite
reckonable scientific and technological
advancements in the field of seismological
studies. Among the terrestrial approaches,
the use of ultrasound imaging technique,
developed by the Scripps Institute of
Oceanography enable onset of earthquake
10-20 minutes ahead of occurrence. The PRC
did not have access to this technique until
May 2008 Wenquan earthquake. It did have in
place space based technology, which, inter
alia, requires articulation for
earth
observation (EO), navigation and
telecommunications systems.
Earth observation system normally
constitutes of an array of the geostationary
and polar satellites. They are specially
designed to observe earth from orbit,
similar to reconnaissance satellites. While
geostationary satellites hover over the same
spot, and provide continuous monitoring to a
particular portion of Earth, the polar
satellites provide global coverage, but only
twice per day at any given spot. While
remote sensing satellites play quite
critical role, the contribution of weather
satellites can not be glossed in EO
function.
In the past three and half decades, Chinese
aerospace establishments have successfully
developed and launched over 50 satellites of
various kinds, half of which could be earth
observation satellites. Strikingly, the
technological range of EO satellites is both
diverse and large. Outcome is accordingly
technology dependent, in particular, the
elements of sophistication in payloads.
Optical earth observation satellites,
launched at different points of time fall in
three categories: recoverable remote sensing
satellite; meteorological satellite; and,
earth resource satellite.
Chinese recoverable remote sensing satellite
has come of age in technological prowess.
The latest one constitute of the third
generation of film recovery photographic
satellite FSW-3 (Fanhui Shi Weixing).
The Chinese Academy of Space Technology
(CAST) is engaged in the development of
these recoverable remote sensing satellites.
15 launches of FSW-0-01, FSW-0-02
and FSW-1, carried out
during1974-1996 with three failures,
consisted of first generation technological
marvel. They carried prism scanning
panoramic and frame metric camera
respectively. The focal length and swath
width of FSW-1 frame metric camera was then
comparable to American Space Shuttle’s
Orbiter- borne Metric Camera. Design life of
this set of satellites has initially been
3-8 days. FSW-2, the second
generation Chinese recoverable remote
sensing satellite, carried node point
panoramic camera in all the three launches
between 1992 and 1996. It had design life of
15 days. The first launch of FSW-3
took place in 2003. It carried payload to
carry out microgravity related experiments.
The design life now ranges between 24-27
days. There have been four launches with
same configuration of FSW-3
thereafter. They are all low orbit 3-axis
stabilization satellites, which stand
oriented to the center of the earth and bear
recovery modules. The PRC is scheduled to go
for another launch of this set of remote
sensing satellite in January 2009.
Meanwhile, the PRC built and successfully
launched two remote sensing micro-satellite
Qinghua-1 in June 2000 and Qinghua-2 in
October 2008 respectively. UK based Surrey
Satellite Technology had provided necessary
technological insight.
There are since three classes of Chinese
metrological satellites. The latest of the
three classes Feng Yun-3 (FY-3) was
launched just one fortnight after the
Wenchuan Earthquake from Taiyuan Satellite
Launch Center in Shanxi province on 27th
May 08. It carried three dimensional
sensors, capable of measuring the dynamics
in the Earth’s atmosphere and climate
besides monitoring polar region and ocean
conditions. The sensor on board is believed
to be capable of measuring temperature
change of 0.1 F degrees. It has spatial
resolution of 250 meters. Feng Yun-1,
the first generation of sun synchronous
metrological satellite was divided into two
batches-Feng Yun-1-01 and Feng
Yun-2-02. There were two launches of
Feng YUN-1-01 in 1988 and 1990
respectively. While Feng Yun-1-01
carried two 5-channel (visible and IR)
scanning radiator, Feng Yun-1-02 had
two 10 channel (visible and IR). Two
launches of Feng Yun-2 in 1997 and
2000 adapted bi-spin stabilization methods.
It had 3-channel (visible and IR) scanning
radiator. The design life time of Feng
Yun-2 was three years. Future launches
of Feng Yun series of Chinese metrological
satellites include Feng Yun-2E and
Feng Yun-3B in Dec 2008 and September
2009.
The earth resource satellite, launched by
the PRC, constitute of Ziyuan series.
It is being developed and launched in a
joint collaboration with Brazil under Shi
Jian-3 Project. It has therefore come to be
known as China, Brazil Earth resource
Satellite (CBERS).The PRC had put the first
of the series Zi Yuan-1 satellite
into sun synchronous orbit on 14 Oct 1999.
Zi Yuan-2 satellite came to be
launched in 2000. Until now, the PRC has
thereafter launched Zi Yuan-1-2
satellite, Zi Yuan-2-3 satellite and
Zi Yuan 1-2B satellite respectively
in Oct 2003, Nov 2004, and Sep 2007. The
future launches include Zi Yuan-3
satellite in Mar 2009.
Nonetheless, the PRC then has Shijian
series of satellites, the latest one
Shijian-6 3A and Shijian-6 3B, launched just
on 25 Oct 2008 and Shijian-9
(seedsat-2) to be launched some times in Nov
2008. The payloads in all the previous ones
in the series are oriented to provide
detailed data on changes in earth crust.
Shijian-5 satellite, launched on 10th
May 1999, was oriented to study
magnetosphere. It carried semi conductor
proton and heavy ion detector, static
electrical analyzer, electrical
potentiometer, static single event monitor,
and dynamic single event monitor. All the
predecessors of Shijian-5 satellites
were characterized to be distinct
technological missions.
To meet the requirements of navigation
satellites for the purpose, the PRC has
Beidou Navigation System, the latest of
which was launched in February 2007.
Beidou-1 system, made up of 4 satellites,
happened to be experimental. Unlike the GPS,
GLONASS, and Galileo systems, Beidou-1 used
geostationary orbit. It did not therefore
require a large constellation of satellites.
In fact, Beidou satellites are based on the
Chinese Dong Fang Hong-3, which is
geostationary. Beidou-2 is going to have a
constellation of 35 satellites, which
included 5 geostationary (GEO) and 30 medium
Earth orbit (MEO) satellites. Moreover,
China is since a member of Galileo
positioning system. Besides, China’s third
generation imaging satellite, the FSW-3
(Fanhui Shi Weixing), uses a charged coupled
device (CCD) array, and, when operating in a
700-km sun synchronous orbit, it is designed
to have a five meter resolution. FSW-1
and FSW-2 were equally powerful by
virtue by their payloads.
Communication is apparently a top priority.
The PRC is up in sleeves with new Zhongxing
Chinasat series. It launched Zhongxing-22)
0n 25 Jan 2000, which was equipped with
C-Band, UHF Communication and Qudian system.
It was perhaps an up date of Dong Fang
Hong-3 design, and constituted first in a
planned constellation of satellites to be
launched through 2010. In between, the PRC
has launched Zhongxing-20,
Zhongxing-22A, Zhongxing-6B2 and
Zhonxing-9 in Nov 2003, Sep 2006,
July 2007, and June 2008 respectively. The
PRC is well set to launch Zhongxing-8 in Dec
2008. Among them, Zhongxing-22,
Zhongxing-20, and Zhongxing-22A
are perhaps Feng Huo-1, Feng Huo-2
and Feng Huo-3 military communication
satellites respectively. Reports suggest
that the PRC now has one dedicated imaging
reconnaissance satellite, along with one
remote sensing satellite, one meteorological
satellite, and one remote sensing micro
satellite with potential dual use
capabilities.
Wide, broad and panoramic range of
applications apart, the efficacy of the
spaced based system in prediction, the
rescue and relief mission, the prevention of
and preparedness for secondary disasters,
and last but not the least, disaster
assessment and reconstruction efforts stands
heavily dependent on compatibility of the
ground based system in various forms and
shape. In certain cases, the limiting
factors transcend beyond corrections. E.O
satellites, for example, can take images
only at a specific times and dates,
depending on orbit and swath width. Time lag
is thus inevitable and hence, the chances of
missing the incident can not be ruled out.
Moreover, the strength of the space based
system lay in its technological prowess in
photogrammetry and remote sensing. Glitch of
any kind and level has potential to affect
the outcome.
Wenquan Earthquake and the Support
Function of the Chinese Space Based System
Going by the Chinese
official version, Wenquan earthquake
displayed unusual quiet before quake of 8.0
magnitudes struck the epicenter.
Xiu Jigang,
Deputy Director, China Seismological Bureau
(CSB) is on record to testify that the
Wenquan earthquake did not produce
foreshocks at all, and the activity level of
minor quakes around the epicenter was low
for quite a long time before the quake. Xu
is again on record to reject suggestions
about any kind of anomaly then detected in
animal behaviour, underground water and
other typical precursors.
This is in stark contrast to innumerable
claims and
counter claims, in hundreds of blogs, much
less some of the news papers, about the
failure of the officials
to take
cognizance, in face of loud and clear
evidence. Li Shihui, a researcher with the
Institute of Geophysics and Geology, Chinese
academy of Sciences,
expressed his
dismay, and was
rather
constrained to say in his
blog (Box-!)
dated12th
May 08 that the things could
have been
entirely different, provided the mainstream
seismologists in China did not ignore the
predictions of Geng Qingguo and others.
A news item in
Chutian Dushi Bao carried vivid details how
80000 tones of water in Guanyin pool in
Enshi County in Hubei province got suddenly
drained out and a whirl pool created with a
roaring noise. Epoch Time, the Falungong
sponsored news paper published a photograph
of toads crawling out of the Tong Yang canal
in Taizhou, cross the Dongfang bridge, far
away in Jiangsu province.
In some blogs, the stories quote eye
witness account how swarm of ants started
heading and sheep getting panicked in
Beichuan county of Sichuan province.
|
Box-1:
Li Shihui Blog on prediction of
Wenchuan earthquake
“…….Today
is May 12, 2008, Chinese
Seismologist Geng Qingguo is
suffering with tearless grief. In
2006, according to the relationship
between drought and earthquake, he
predicted that in recent years there
would be serious earthquakes of over
7 magnitudes in Aba Autonomous
prefecture. After a group discussion
on April 26, 2008, the Committee on
National Hazard prediction
subordinate to Chinese Geophysical
Society (CGS) reported that an
earthquake of 6-7 magnitude could
possibly occur in areas south of
Lanzhou, around the borders of
Sichuan, Gansu and Qinghai. What
more Geng Qingguo clearly indicated
that the dangerous point of an
earthquake over 7 magnitudes in Aba
prefecture is May 8, 2008 (10 days
before or later) in accordance with
the magnetic storm combinations.
Geng Qinguo, an undoubted national
treasure, is being excluded by the
earthquake experts of main stream,
and can only depend on a meagre
pension to continue his research.
The pity is what this old
seismologist said did not make any
difference.
I
am filled with grief and
indignation. I am wondering if there
will come a day when national
treasures like Geng Qingguo, Wang
Chenmin, Ren Zhenqiu and Wang Dixing
are not frozen out any more, and
freely work for rejuvenation of
China.
|
FORMOSA-3
Taiwanese Satellite had recorded drastic
drop in ionospheric density, six to 15 days
before May 12, 2008. On 11th May
2008, it had dropped to half to 600000
charged particles. Chinese space based
system did not have an inkling about it.
After the epicenter in Beichuan was hit, and
colossal damage to life and property was
done, the Chinese space based infrastructure
picked up 10-odd pictures once the quake hit
the epicenter at 1428 hrs (CST). China
Remote Sensing Satellite Ground Station
found them least useful due to poor quality
of images. Chinese mainstream seismologists
have tried to explain away the failure to
overcast sky stalling effective penetration
of both Chinese camera and Chinese infrared
device with the system.
First image of
the earthquake was taken by Taiwan’s
FORMOSAT-II satellite. Prof. Harry Chang, of
National Taiwan University immediately
shared the imagery with the Chinese Academy
of Sciences. It showed a large forest, a
school and cluster of residential houses in
Beichuanxian damaged beyond recognition. It
also showed landslides, covering some 1500
hectares (3705 acres) that blocked the
river.
The Institute of
Space and Earth Information Sciences (ISEIS)
of the Chinese University of Hong Kong
collaborated first with the Taiwanese
University to analyze FORMOSAT-II imagery of
14th May 08 to assess the extent
of damage in Qushanzhen, Beichuan County.
ISEIS also
collaborated with the Taiwan University to
compare and contrast changes in the water
level of Tangjiashan Barrier Lake, based on
FORMOSAT-II imagery of 14th May
08 and 18th May 08. The first set
of imagery of FORMOSAT-II, analyzed and
interpreted by the ISEIS, showed formation
of 30 quake dams and 34 quake lakes. It
also showed areas of landslides on the
mountains in Beichuan County; Barrier Lake
formed in Jianyang, Tangjiashan; gradual
increase in the Width of Tangjiashan Barrier
Lake from 230 M (14th May 08) to
540 M (18th May 08); and,
increase in the water surface in Xuanping
Janzu township.
Until alternate channel was not dug wit use
of heavy machinery, air dropped by Russian
helicopters, Tangjiashan Lake posed imminent
dangers to the lives and property of 1.3
million people in the affected areas.
On specific
request from the PRC, German Infoterra and
French SPOT Image Co., Ltd. supported
China’s effort in rescue and relief
operations through quality radar and optical
satellite imagery. The former tasked radar
satellite TerraSAR-X and the latter optical
satellite SPOT-5 to acquire data of affected
areas.
The two provide satellite imagery to China
in just 7 hours after the quake. Chinese
organizations in the field to cooperate with
German Infoterra and French SPOT Image Co.,
Ltd. included China’s National Disaster
Reduction Center, the State Bureau of
Surveying and Mapping, the Ministry of Land
Resources, the State Earthquake
Administration and the State Council of the
Satellite Imagery. They cooperated in
interpretation, map compilation and rapid
analysis. The rapid mapping experts of
German Infoterra and French SPOT Image Co.,
Ltd. in Europe were largely responsible for
preparation of first map sheets, and then
annotated map that became available at the
ground stations. TerraSAR-X is a radar
satellite and operates independent of
weather conditions. It has favourable
resolution properties as well.
Notwithstanding, it coordinated with its
extensive network of global receiving
stations for the job.
ISEIS of the
Chinese University of Hong Kong did as well
collaborate with SPOT Image Co., Ltd.,
Beijing and carried out building damage
assessment in Dujianyan. The project team
compared two satellite images , a German
TerraSAR-X Band 1 M resolution radar image
taken on 16th May 08 and a
Quickbird optical satellite image taken on
23rd May 08, and assessed the
degree of building damages in Dujianyan. IT
showed 90 per cent of the buildings in the
area damaged, 15 per cent of which belonged
to settlements. ISEIS also compared the
German radar satellite TerraSAR-X image
Xuantou County, Mao County, Barrier Lake in
Xuanping Qiangzu township and certain other
quake affected areas in Sichuan.
At the end of the
day, the archived French SPOT Image Co., Ltd
and Taiwan’s FOROSAT-II and TerraSAR-X
imagery added valuable information in the
whole gamut and enabled Emergency Work
Group, set up under the Chairmanship of the
Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao to provide succor
to the victims. As part of the process, the
imagery so received was sent to Disaster
Prevention and Mitigation Committee (DPMC),
who executed the required follow up. The
same was true for the video documents of the
Beijing No.1 Satellite. In turn, such data
works helped DPMC in recognition and
assessment of damages suffered in populated
areas and to infrastructure, identification
of focus areas, and action coordination at
the long last. Notwithstanding, the
imageries had then helped in getting to know
normal levels of rivers and lakes. It helped
in preventing further damage to
infrastructure through correctives as well.
Efficacy of the Chinese Space Assets in
Disaster Management
Quite apparently,
as the foregoing discussions boil down, the
existing Chinese space based infra structure
then did not produce worthwhile imagery for
any of the three phases of disaster
management efforts. The system did not have
much to contribute for disaster prevention
and mitigation works for future either.
Prediction of earthquake would remain an
enigma not until a system is in place to
take cognizance of terrestrial geophysics
and geology related precursors with space
based cognition and identification
parameters.
The role of
Chinese photogrammetry and remote sensing
professionals has been quite reckonable. In
the company of foreign professionals, they
got deep insights. In phase-I of the
disaster management efforts, the Chinese
photogrammetry and remote sensing
professionals received on-ground-exposure of
the latest techniques of interpretation of
high resolution imagery that helped in
locating buildings that collapsed in the
worst hit areas. In phase-II of the disaster
management efforts, which sought to meet out
and cater prevention and preparedness for
secondary disasters, the Chinese
photogrammetry and remote sensing
professionals got thorough with the system
mechanism of handling airborne and space
borne optical imagery and radar data that
were used for identifying, assessing and
decision making in respect of areas prone to
secondary disasters like landslides and
mudslides, especially those in and around
the quake lakes or barrier lakes formed when
a land slide plugged a river. They have
benefited greatly in the third phase, which
has now gone to focus on disaster assessment
and reconstruction. It relates to high
skills of topographic mapping at 1:10000
scales in the region with an aerial extent
of 120000 kms based on the techniques of
aerial photogrammetic survey without ground
control points, generating information
products such as DEM, DOQs and DLGs.
Much of the
lacuna in the Chinese system came for
discussions in the emergency session of
Xiangshan Science Conference (XSSC) in
Beijing on 19th May 08, where 40
top experts in seismology and geophysics got
to discuss threadbare different shades of
the issue. The top Chinese minds in the
field included Prof. Zhang Peizhen from the
State Bureau of Seismology (SBS), Prof. Xu
Zhiqin from the China Academy of Earth
Science (CAES) and Prof Wang Guanqian from
Qinghua University. They came out with a
wide range of recommendations, some of which
speak of the process and system that the
Chinese approach hitherto lacked to handle
the issue.
Box-2 carries the glimpse. The gloat over
China lacking reckonable system for
forecasts of deadly earthquakes of as large
as 8 magnitude is understandable. This is
besides the fact that the Chinese did not
have a worthwhile and dependable imagery
interpretation system in place to support
post quake rescue, relief and rehabilitation
as well.
|
Box-2 System Glitch and XSSC
Recommendations
(a)
Strengthening studies on the
sequence of serialized aftershocks
(b)
Effective forecasting having
tangible and substantial effects
(c)
Thorough study and probe into
the tectonic causes of the Wenchuan
earthquake
(d)
Theoretical expositions to
address questions such as the
formative mechanism of the nappe
structure thrusting earthquakes and
objective laws
(e)
Nationwide survey of anti
quake safety of all public
buildings, particularly primary and
middle school buildings, hospitals
and the like.
|
The PRC is
ostensibly not unaware of the glitch in
either the terrestrial or space based
system. There are efforts afoot to bridge
the gap. In less than a fortnight after the
Wenchuan earthquake, China launched Fengyun-III
satellite into the orbit. 0n 06th
Nov 2008, china launched two EO satellites,
microsatellite Chuangxin-1-02 and Shiyan
satellite on Long March- 2 D Carrier rocket.
Nevertheless, China has plans to launch
Fengyun-IV series by 2013. It will give
China a jump start in earth observation
mission.
In China as in
the rest part of the world, the time lag in
prediction of earthquake is almost razor
thin. The Taiwanese FORMOSAT-II and the
Japanese ALOS Radar Remote Sensing
Monitoring device proved capable of getting
inklings not more than a minute before the
deadly Wenchuan earthquake played havoc. It
shall be too much to think that the Chinese
EO system will do any better in foreseeable
future. It has first to develop spatial data
infrastructure to contribute meaningfully to
post-quake missions.
The gloat over
China lacking reckonable system for
forecasts of deadly earthquakes of as large
as 8 magnitude is understandable. This is
besides the fact that the Chinese did not
have worthwhile imagery interpretation
system in place to support post quake
rescue, relief and rehabilitation as well.
The PRC is not unaware of the glitch in
either the terrestrial or space based
system. There are efforts afoot to bridge
the gap. In less than a fortnight after the
Wenchuan earthquake, China launched Fengyun-III
satellite into the orbit. 0n 06th
Nov 2008, china launched two EO satellites,
microsatellite Chuangxin-1-02 and Shiyan
satellite on Long March- 2 D Carrier rocket.
Nevertheless, China has plans to launch
Fengyun-IV series by 2013. It will give
China a jump start in earth observation
mission.
In China as in
the rest part of the world, the time lag in
prediction of earthquake is almost razor
thin. The Taiwanese FORMOSAT-II and the
Japanese ALOS Radar Remote Sensing
Monitoring device proved capable of getting
inklings not more than a minute before the
deadly Wenchuan earthquake played havoc.
It shall be too much to think that the
Chinese EO system will do any better in
foreseeable future. It has first to develop
spatial data infrastructure to contribute
meaningfully to post-quake missions.
(Dr. Sheonandan Pandey is a China watcher
with a long stint in the Government of India
and finally retied from National Technical
Research Organization. He can be contacted
at
sheonandan@hotmail.com)