Paper no. 1796

10. 05. 2006

VIETNAM ’S RENEWED SIGNIFICANCE IN UNITED STATES STRATEGIC CALCULUS  

By Dr. Subhash Kapila  

Introductory Observations  

Vietnam ’s geo-strategic significance has always remained a constant because of its geographical location which uniquely imparts to it a ‘Pivot Position’ in the Asia Pacific.   Vietnam ’s significance in the United States strategic calculus has waxed and waned, relative to the status of United States – China relations at a given point in time.  

Vietnam ’s strategic significance in United States strategy remained de-valued from the mid -1970’s to the end of the Cold War as during this period the United States was on a “high” in its policy approaches towards China .  The Americans and the Chinese were then engaged in a quasi- strategic alliance to checkmate the former Soviet Union, which remains till today a strategic partner of Vietnam .  

The end of the Cold War and the strategic utility of China having lost its sheen in American strategies, the United States commenced its tentative approaches to establish diplomatic relations with Vietnam    in the 1990s and culminating with President Clinton’s visit to Vietnam in 2000.  It signified the emergence of Vietnam in United States security considerations as a result of contemporary post-Cold War developments.  

In 2006, when United States – China relations are assuming adversarial contours, Vietnam has acquired a renewed significance in United States strategic calculus.   Vietnam ’s Prime Minister and Defence Minister paid visits to USA last year and discussions included defence matters.  President Bush is due to visit Vietnam in November, 2006 to underscore the new strategic significance that the United States attaches to Vietnam .  

It needs to be noted at the outset that the interest in raising the strategic salience of United States- Vietnam relations is not a one-way game.  The interest is from both countries.  

For readers, who wish to delve deeper into the geo-strategic significance of Vietnam , it is suggested that they read the following papers on Vietnam by this author:  

The theme of this paper will be addressed by throwing light on the following considerations:  

  • Vietnam ’s Geo-Political Resources of Interest to the United States .
  • Vietnam ’s Official Approaches on US-Vietnam Relations.
  • US-Vietnam Relations: Future Prospects

Vietnam’s Geo-Political Resources of Interest to the United States  

The main theme that stands repeated in all statements by top political and military leaders from the United States in their exchanges with the Vietnamese hierarchy can be summed up as under:  

  • US-Vietnam security cooperation must proceed in tandem with forward movement in the diplomatic and economic fields.
  • Bi-lateral security arrangements are the corner-stone of Asia Pacific stability.
  • USA remains committed to its forward military presence in the Pacific, in the defence of sea-lanes traversing the South China Sea and the stability of the nations of the region.

The stress on security cooperation between USA and Vietnam to proceed in tandem with other cooperation underlines the over-arching strategic framework that the United States wishes to put in place in its relationship with Vietnam .  

The imperatives are basically contemporary geo-strategic and geo-political significances that Vietnam has acquired.  The geo-strategic significance stands already spelt out in the author’s earlier papers quoted above.  

The geo-political resources that Vietnam offers to the United States do not stand explicitly spelt out in any US official document.  However, one does find reflections of United States considerations in research papers in the United States .  This author has chosen a Harvard research  paper which mostly aptly describes the geo-political resources that Vietnam offers.  Selected excerpts are quoted below:  

  • “Today Vietnam is located in a strategic playing field in which the major players are – according to their ambitions and capabilities – China, The United States, Japan and India.”
  • “Occupying a half of the islands in the Spratlys and having a long coastline closest to the center of the maritime routes through the South China Sea, Vietnam is in the geographically most advantageous position to control the South China Sea .”
  • “Amongst South East nations it has the longest history and the richest experience of dealing with China .”
  • “The rise of China has increased the strategic importance of South East Asia, the South China Sea and Vietnam .”
  • “”Its ( Vietnam ’s) significance has changed from a chapter in history ( USA – Vietnam ) to an actor in strategy.”
  • “Given its rivalry with China in the South China Sea, Vietnam cannot become Beijing ’s strategic ally in the region.  On the contrary, Vietnam presents the biggest hurdle that stands in the way to China ’s Southwards moves.”
  • “We are now witnessing the emergence of a new world order, in which Vietnam lies at both a major cleavage of great power rivalry and a major linkage of regional economic integration.”

Vietnam ’s renewed significance in United States strategic calculus arises from the above geo-political resources.  

In the United States current “hedging strategies” aimed at China , and as a part of which Japan and India are receiving significant strategic attention from USA , Vietnam ’s strategic and geo-political assets make it a valuable asset in USA “hedging strategies”.  

Vietnam’s Official Approaches on US-Vietnam Relations  

The official website of Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs offers valuable insight into Vietnam ’s current thinking on advancement of US-Vietnam relations.  It can be said that Vietnam is ready to reciprocate United States strategic overtures.  

One Ministry seminar in August 2005 highlighted that: “… the relations between Vietnam and USA did not begin from a War, but from a period earlier than that.  In the early years of the 19th century and under the terms of President Jefferson and President Jackson, delegations from USA were sent to Vietnam to establish friendly ties and trade exchanges.  Meanwhile, King Tu Duc also had sent an envoy to the United States ”.  It indicates that the United States interest in Vietnam is now 200 years old.  

Coming to 2006, a paper on May 9, 2006 on the Vietnamese Foreign Ministry website makes the following points:  

  • Initially it comments that US-Vietnam relations date a long time but have undergone a lot of vicissitudes due to twists of historical ups and downs.
  • It then highlights the common US-Vietnam interest, which have led to deepening of ties since the normalization of ties. What follows thereafter is  quoted verbatim so that the import of the formulations are not lost.
  • “Such common interest is of long term and strategic importance to both countries from all perspectives, not just in economics, trade and for investment only.”
  • “What lies ahead in Vietnam-US relations will be more potential and durable compared to what has been achieved over the last 10 years.”
  • “Consistent with its foreign policy, Vietnam is ready to shelve the past and look forward to the future in relations with the United States ….. we should let bygones be bygones, as history cannot be re-written while the future definitely belongs to us.”

The import of the above statements is that the future direction of Vietnam- US relations will have an over-riding strategic direction and content.  

US-Vietnam Relations: The Future Prospects  

The following points made in the above official statement of Vietnam on the future of US-Vietnam relations deserve emphasis:  

  • Vietnam and USA perceive that their common interests are long term and of strategic importance.
  • What will follow in the development of this relationship would have more potential and  be more durable and “that the future belongs to us”.

The future of East Asia and Asia Pacific is being claimed by China and in direct opposition to the United States .  In the contentious future that is likely to follow in  this vital strategic region between the United States and China , it seems that Vietnam strategically perceives that its future lies in a good relationship with the United States .  

While both the United States and Vietnam tend to over-emphasise that the emerging US-Vietnam strategic relationship is not directed at China, but the sign-posting under way does indicate that the emerging convergence of interests are prompted by the China factor.  

It is nobody’s case that the United States and Vietnam are entering into a military alliance.  In the case of the United States , the enlistment of Vietnam as a regional actor friendly to USA in the coming years becomes a part of its “hedging strategy” against China .  In the case of Vietnam , which has taken great pains to re-establish good relations with China in the last few years, the aim seems to be to take out a “strategic insurance policy” to secure its future, in face of any aggressive Chinese moves in the South China Sea .  

In the 21st Century, there are no “ideological crusades” which divide United States and Vietnam as in the past.  The ASEAN nations and Japan , closely allied with US strategy are also no longer distrustful of Vietnam .  

In such an environment, the prospects of good US-Vietnam relations is bright with strategic convergences and ‘real-politik” being the predominant driving force.   China will continue to be the principal determinant.

Concluding Observations  

Commenting on geo-political resources, the paper quoted above states: “The fate of a nation, or the rise and fall of a country, depends in larger part on the country’s geo-political resources and the nations’ ability in exploiting those resources.”  

Vietnam today stands uniquely poised to exploit its geo-political resources backed by sustained economic growth, restructuring its state-controlled economy and shedding many of its ideological fixations so as to merge itself with a globalised world.  

The above task is being made easier and facilitated by the United States growing recognition of Vietnam ’s renewed significance in US strategic calculus.  It has been rightly observed that Vietnam is no longer a chapter in the history of the United States but could emerge as an actor in its strategies.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)

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