Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: Strategic Implications

RUSSIA’S MONROE DOCTRINE: STRATEGIC IMPLICATIONS

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Russia’s assertion of its resurgence was forcefully dramatized in recent weeks not only by its military intervention in Georgia, but more significantly by its enunciation of Russia’s own Monroe Doctrine and Russia’s plans for military rearmament. Russia has already commenced major military exercises with all-out war scenarios.

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine which emerged from what is now being called the Medvedev Doctrine or Russia’s new Foreign Policy Doctrine in declaratory terms lays down the thrust lines henceforth for the conduct of Russia’s foreign policy. This was within six weeks of the assumption of office by President Medvedev.

President Medvedev followed this Declaration by the articulation of a Defense Doctrine laying down priorities for Russia’s rearmament program. Implicit in this was Russia’s intention to add more muscle to its new Foreign Policy Doctrine with specific relevance to reclaiming its spheres of influence.

Actually, both the new Russian Foreign Policy Doctrine and the Defence Doctrine are a continuation in content of the broad policies followed by former President Putin.

The dramatism, however, lies in the timing of the Foreign Policy Doctrine and Defence Doctrine. Analytically, it can be maintained that Russia was strategically and politically dismayed with the United States and Western casual indifference to Russia’s warnings on not supporting Kosavo’s unilateral declaration of independence and not put into effect US plans for missile defence deployments in Eastern Europe.

Russia’s riposte over these two issues was not slow in coming and was sharply executed in Georgia. In what can be construed as a pre-emptive bid to forestall further encroachments on Russia’s strategic turf the enunciation of the new Foreign Policy Doctrine is aimed at “putting on notice” the United States, the West and more specifically the former Republics of the Soviet Union on Russia’s periphery to stop becoming pawns of the United States strategic tussle with Russia.

The Russian Monroe Doctrine has far reaching strategic implications both at the global level and the regional level. It must therefore be seriously noted by the international community to avoid the possibilities of a second Cold War gaining momentum.

This Paper attempts to analyze the global and regional implications of Russia’s Monroe Doctrine and related perspectives under the following heads:

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Significant Features Analysed
Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Global Implications
Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Regional Implications
Russia’s Military Preparedness: Major War Scenarios Exercises and Defence Doctrine
Centrality of China and India in Russia’s Foreign Policy Doctrine

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Significant Features Analyzed

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine or in other words the new Foreign Policy Doctrine of Russia articulated by President Medvedev is a lengthy document whose full contents can be viewed on Russian Government's official websites. For the purposes of this Paper the five major thrusts of Russia’s new Foreign Policy Doctrine are one being touched.

The five significant principles of its new Foreign Policy Doctrine publicly declared by President Medvedev are as follows:

“Firstly, Russia recognizes the primacy of fundamental principles of international law, which define the relations between civilized nations. We will build our relations with other countries within the framework of these principles and the concept of international law.”
“Secondly, the world should be multipolar. A single pole is unacceptable. Domination is something we can’t allow. We cannot accept a world order in which one country makes all the decisions, even as serious and influential country as the United States of America. Such a world in unstable and threatened with conflict.”
“Thirdly, Russia does not want confrontation with any country. Russia has no intention of isolating itself. We will develop friendly relations with Europe, the United States of America and other countries as much as possible.”
“Fourthly, protecting the lives and dignity of our citizens, wherever they may be is an unquestionable priority for our country. Our foreign policy decisions will be based on this need. We will also protect the interests of our business community abroad. It should be clear to all that we will respond to any aggressive acts committed against us.
“Fifthly, as is the case with other countries, there are regions in which Russia has “privileged interests”. These regions home to countries with which we share special historical relations and are bound together as friends and good neighbours. We will pay particular attention to our work in these regions and build friendly ties with these countries, our close neighbours.

When these five principles are analyzed, the strategic message that Russia wants to sent out to the international community in declaratory terms, and in particular to the United States, the West and the countries on its perimeter, specifically can be said to be as follows:

Russia is no longer willing to accept the unipolar strategic dominance of the global power system by the United States. Russia sees a pronounced role for itself in the global power system.
Russia is looking for a multipolar global power configuration to offset American strategic dominance.
Russia favors an international order which operates within the framework of international institutions like the United Nations and international laws and conventions. The emphasis on “international law, which defines the relations between civilized nations” needs to be noted. It is an oblique reference to the United States.
When it is said that Russia has no intention of isolating itself internationally, it really implies that Russia will play a pro-active role in international affairs.
The fourth and fifth points made by President Medvedev are in essence the enunciation of Russia’s Monroe Doctrine.
The fourth point in the Russian Doctrine is seen to be picked from US national strategy doctrines. Is essence it means that Russia will not hesitate to intervene even militarily should an eventuality arise where security of Russian citizens abroad or even business interests are involved. This has implications for the former Republics of the Soviet Union in which reside sizeable Russian minorities. In these former Republics lie substantial Russian business interests in the form of oil and gas resources. This has to be read as a notice for military interventions.
The last point is again a declaration of the Russian Monroe Doctrine claiming “privileged interest” in a number of regions. In immediate terms this can be construed that Russia has “privileged interests” in all former Russian Republics in Central Asia and on its Western peripheries like the Baltics, with some of them now in the fold of the United States and NATO.

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Global Implications

The imperatives for enunciation of a Russian Monroe Doctrine in more ways than one marks the lowest ebb in the history of Russia-United States relations after 1991 when the Cold War ended.

The inevitability of a second Cold War emerging between Russia and the United States stands discussed in detail in this Author’s recent SAAG Papers on Russia’s resurgence.

In one of these Papers, this Author had brought out that for the United States and the West, the Cold War never ended. If it had then NATO would have gone extinct like its counterpart the Warsaw Pact. In fact the eastward creep of NATO along with the externally inspired “colour revolutions” on Russia’s periphery has prompted Russia’s ripostes including this new Doctrine to pre-empt further strategic neutralization of Russia’s power attributes and limiting her sphere of influence.

The global implications of Russia’s Monroe Doctrine have to be viewed in this light and the patterns of the earlier Cold War would necessarily get repeated once again.

The global implications of Russia’s Monroe Doctrine can therefore be summarized as under:

Russia-United States relations once again would enter a strategically competitive if not confrontational state.
Russia and the United States consequently, would harbor heightened threat perceptions of each other. Strategic mistrust would prevail.
Russia and the United States would not enter into a direct armed conflict. Their strategic rivalries and tussles would be executed through “proxies” in strategic regions of the world.
Russia is likely to indulge in a rapid military rearmament build-up to lessen its differentials in military balance with the United States.
The NATO military alliance enlargement will prompt the enlargement of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Russian Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Russia would attempt “forward military presence” deployments in regions strategically sensitive to the United States.

All in all, at the global level, the revived Cold war would generate turbulence and instability in the Middle East, East Asia and even Eastern Europe as Russia strategically challenges the United States.

The global implications of the Russian Monroe Doctrine, besides the above manifestations in Russia-US bilateral equation has also to be viewed at three other levels globally in terms of strategic impact, political impact and economic impact.

The global strategic impact of the Russian Monroe Doctrine would weigh heavily on United States global image of unquestioned leadership. The United States today is in a state of “imperial overstretch” and its options to effectively deal with Russia’s revived challenge are limited. Today Russia can generate more strategic irritants globally for the United States than America can do so in response.

Politically, the global impact of the Russian Monroe Doctrine can be expected to weigh heavily on the Atlantic Alliance and the new found American allies in Eastern Europe. Political ties could loosen and alliance unity frayed when country-specific challenges are posed by Russia’s resurgence to US allies.

Russia today enjoys significant economic leverages in the energy sector which it can employ decisively to modulate comprehensively the policies of US allies both in Europe and the Asia Pacific. Besides in the ensuing strategic confrontation that may ensue, even with drop in oil prices, Russia would not be constrained in use of its economic leverages resting on the energy sector nor would its strategic armament plans be restricted.

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine: The Regional Implications

The regional implications of the Russian Monroe Doctrine needs to be primarily examined in the context of the United States overall military and political strategy directed towards Russia in the post-Cold War era of the 1990s and thereafter.

The essentials of the United States post-Cold War strategy against Russia were as follows: (1) Establish a US military presence in Central Asia (2) Prevent a Russian foothold in the Middle East and Gulf Region more specifically (3) Eastward creep of NATO to Russia’s doorsteps (4) Dilute or neutralize Russia’s leverages over Central Asia and Caucasus energy resources.

The Russian Monroe Doctrine when fully effective would greatly neutralize US strategic objectives outlined above. The US military presence today in Central Asia is notional. With these regions claimed by Russia as “privileged interests” the United States may be hard-pressed to keep its military presence in Central Asia.

Russia has already established a strategic bridgehead in the Middle East and the Gulf Region with a number of strategic forays by former President Putin which stand covered, in this Author’s SAAG Papers so named in the period 2005-2007.

Syria seems to be emerging as hosting a major forward military presence to Russia on the Mediterranean littoral in exchange for Russian military hardware. The naval base at Tartus is being upgraded for the Russian Navy.

The most notable impact in the Middle East of Russian Monroe Doctrine has been in Israel. Israel military advisers were in Georgia with US military advisers till the Russian military intervention. With Israeli intelligence getting indication of Russian military intervention, Israel military advisers were hastily withdrawn. Israel is acutely aware that Russia could generate a host of strategic and military problems for Israel, should Israel not be careful in respecting Russian strategic sensitivities. Israel is reported to be assuaging Russian concerns on this count.

The eastward creep of NATO seems to have been halted in its tracks even before the Georgia intervention. Germany and other European nations effectively blocked the question of admission of Ukraine and Georgia into NATO strongly advocated by the United States.

American efforts to bypass Russian territory by new pipeline alignments going through Georgia etc has prompted Russia to accelerate its pipeline grid to China and Japan, both nations having pumped in billions of dollars to garner Russian oil and gas supplies. Europe has no options in this regard and hence a direct under-sea pipeline from Russia to Germany is under construction. Russia has therefore more options in the energy sector than the United States can block.

Regionally, the major impact of the Russian Monroe Doctrine will be on the Atlantic Alliance. Europe’s major nations like Germany and France do not share American perspectives of Russia. Historically, it needs to be remembered that Russia was a very much European country, much before the United States emergence as a nation. Europe today needs Russia in more ways than one and both sides are conscious of this strategic reality.

Russia’s new Monroe Doctrine and “privileged interest” in the former Soviet Republics to begin with would facilitate Russia once again weighing heavily on the regions of Central Asia, the Northern Tier of the Middle East and on Russia’s western peripheries.

Russia’s next steps in enlarging her sphere of influence could extend to countries as far as Cuba, Venezuela and re-establishing Russian presence in Cam Ranh in Vietnam.

Russia’s Military Preparedness: Major War Scenarios Exercises and Defence Doctrines

In earlier Papers of this author on the subject the following stands reflected: (1) Russia’s multi-billion dollars rearmament program (2) Introduction of new generation of strategic assets i.e. ICBMs, SLBMs and Cruise Missiles (3) Russian naval presence in the Mediterranean (4) Russian bombers flights over the Pacific and the Atlantic.

All of the above suggest that Russia has started flexing its military muscles and making its military image globally visible in keeping with her global strategic ambitions.

Russia recently held her first major military war exercise in the last 20 years on the borders near Kazakhstan. The exercise named Ex. MOBILITY 2008 was attended by President Medvedev and other Russian dignitaries.

The notable feature of this Ex MOBILITY 2008 was the military scenario that was given as the background. The scenario was of a Local Conflict in Russia’s vicinity escalating into an all out war with land, sea and air dimensions between Russia and the West.

The ultimate scenario was a global nuclear conflict between Russia and the United States.

President Medvedev referring to events in George observed that: “We have seen that an absolutely real war can erupt suddenly, and simmering local conflicts which are sometimes even called “frozen” can turn into a real military firestorm”.

The fact that needs to be registered by the international community is that Russia is very serious about her intent to emerge as a superpower once again. It is even further preparing itself for a global conflict, sensing that such an eventuality could well nigh be possible.

In continuation of the Monroe Doctrine, President Medvedev spelt out a new Defence Doctrine incorporating five major priorities for the Russian military, namely:

Russian combat formations and units to achieve “permanent readiness state” by 2020 by massive reorganization, reequipping and redeployment
Russia’s Command and Control Systems to be modernized
Modernization and upgradation of Russian military hardware
Military doctrines and training to be given high priority
Pay and allowance of Russian armed forces to be enhanced

Russia seems to have embarked in real earnest on a significant upgradation of her military capabilities which stood neglected for nearly a decade or so One can now expect that with this sort of drive and lessons learnt from its Georgia military intervention, the Russian Armed Forces to be more combat ready and combat effective.

The emphasis will be on military intervention missions in Russia's spheres of influence, global force projection and readiness for even a nuclear conflict. It needs to be remembered that Russia's strategic nuclear assets outnumber those of USA..

Centrality of China and India in Russia’s Foreign Policy Doctrine

The new foreign policy document heavily emphasizes the following in relation to China and India:

China and India are considered as of “strategic” value for Russia’s foreign policy. It is the first time the aspect stands so stressed.
China and India are viewed as top priorities for Russia’s Asian policies and global policies too.

It is but natural that Russia accords top priority in its foreign policy to China and India. China and India are emerging as leading global powers, if not superpowers, and would provide the other “poles” of the multipolar world envisaged by Russia.

Russia has a singular advantage in this direction in that it has a virtual strategic alliance with China which can be reinforced. With India, Russia enjoys a time-tested strategic partnership on which Russia can build further.

More importantly between Russia and India there are no contradictory or competing strategic interests. Russia long ago acceded South Asia as India’s sphere of influence and has refrained from any strategic or military linkages with Pakistan.

Concluding Observations

Russia’s Monroe Doctrine has far reaching global and regional implications. Russia has put the international community on notice in declaratory terms that Russia’s strategic aspirations cannot be trifled with neither by the United States or those countries on Russia’s periphery which may become tempted to become instruments of US global strategy.

A second Cold War is therefore underway now and is a distinct global strategic reality. The strategic regions of the globe like the Middle East, Central Asia and Eastern Europe would be the first to feel the pressures of the revived strategic jostling between the United States and Russia. East Asia would be the next focus.

The Russian Monroe Doctrine seems to be a serious Russian attempt to re-define the existing international order which had excluded Russia from global strategic decision- making ever since 1991.. Through this Monroe Doctrine and the attendant priorities on military rearmament and preparation for global military contingencies, Russia seems intent on re-claiming its erstwhile status as the “second pole” in the global strategic power system.

On present strategic indicators, it seems that Russia could achieve her ambitions in this direction. Russia has timed her bid opportunely at a stage when the United States is in an “imperial overstretch” strategically and her options limited in impeding Russia’s initiatives.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)