Russia-India Strategic Partnership Continues to be Vibrant

RUSSIA-INDIA STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIP CONTINUES TO BE VIBRANT

By Dr. Subhash Kapila

Introductory Observations

Russia and India reaffirmed their strategic partnership last week and also gave strong indications that both nations intend to sustain this relationship in a vibrant mode. It is strategically and politically significant that the timing of the Russia-India strategic reaffirmation, whether by political design or otherwise, should have taken place against the backdrop of the exciting finalization of the Indo-US Nuclear Deal in Washington.

The occasion for the reaffirmation of the Russia-India strategic partnership was the 8^th Annual Meeting of the India-Russia Inter-Governmental Commission for Military-Technical Cooperation (IRIGC-MTC) which took place on September 28-29, 2008 in New Delhi. The Commission meeting was jointly presided over by the Russian Defence Minister Anatoly Serdyukov and Indian Defence Minister A. K. Antony.

The most significant outcome of this meeting was that both Russia and India have agreed to extend the tenure of IRIGC-MTC by another 10 years i.e. from 2010 to 2020. It needs to be recalled that the IRIGC-MTC is the apex body at the Defence Ministers level which steers and monitors the entire course of Russia-India military-technical cooperation encompassing arms purchases from Russia, joint development and joint technological cooperation in the military hardware sector.

In the mutually agreed military-technical cooperation plans till 2010, more than 200 projects are covered encompassing all the three Services of the Indian Armed Forces.

Admittedly, when it comes to military hardware sales and military-technical cooperation, there are bound to be differences especially in terms of pricings and financial outlays which have to be resolved by a pain-staking dialogue process. This is a normal happening in any military deal with any country and too much should not be made of media reports on this issue. However, what should not be lost sight of is the overall perspective in that in this case Russia (with the exception of the Yeltsin years) has been a reliable source of advanced military hardware for India.

India may have diversified considerably in terms of its military hardware supplies to Israel and France noticeably and now in the process of including the United States too. The strategic reality that persists, however, is that the Indian Armed Forces have nearly a 70% dependency on Russian military hardware in their inventories.

Such a high percentage of dependency on Russian military hardware would take the better part of the 21^st Century to transform, should India decide to do so. But then there are strong strategic and political factors which would dictate that India should continue with its military-technical cooperation with Russia.

Russia too has a strong incentive in maintaining its military-technical cooperation with India in that India accounts for nearly 40% all Russian arms exports. Then like India, there are strategic and political factors that under- pin Russia-India military-technical cooperation and it is in Russia’s strong strategic interests to sustain its strategic partnership with India. For Russia too, its strategic partnership with India as compared to its present strategic relations with China, is comparatively more time-tested and credible.

The media contains adequate reports on the 8^th Annual Meeting of the IRIGC-MTC held in New Delhi on September 28-29, 2008. Hence, this Paper has no intention of going into those details.

This Paper would prefer to present some perspectives arising from this meeting and its impact on the overall tone and content of the Russia-India Strategic Partnership. With this in view, the following perspectives are offered.

Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Extension Till 2020: The Strategic Message
Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Extension Till 2020: The Political Message
Transformation of the Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Relationship
Russia-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation

Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Extension Till 2020: The Strategic Message

The major strategic messages that seem to emanate from the extension of the IRIGC-MTC till 2020 by both Russia and India are as follows:

India’s strategic partnership with Russia is independent of any evolving strategic ties with the United States
India has no intentions for a wholesale replacement of its Russian military hardware inventories. Diversification however is a prudent step.
India places strategic trust in Russia’s credibility as a reliable source of military hardware and that is the reason which prompts India to enter into long term joint development plans of 5^th Generation Fighter aircraft and heavy lift military transport aircraft.
India’s strategic trust in Russia in the long term perspectives is further exemplified by India’s new orders for 1,300 T-90 Tanks, Additional SMERCH MLRS systems, Helicopters etc. India’s military hardware inventories would therefore continue to be predominantly Russia-centric.

At a more higher strategic level, India seems to be sending out signals that in terms of its strategic partnerships, India will continue to operate as an independent player at the global level. India has no intention of becoming a strategic satellite of either Russia or the United States. However, at the same time it values its time-tested strategic partnership with Russia.

Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Extension Till 2020: The Political Message

The political message is a take off from the above in that India wishes to convey that it intends to maintain “strategic autonomy” in its international relations and the management of its relations with the global powers.

India’s political message for Russia is that India continues to value the political component of its strategic partnership with Russia which has been a time-tested one. Politically, in continuation of the present event, both Russia and India can be expected to reinforce their strategic partnership with added contours when the new Russian President Medvedev comes on a maiden visit to India in December 2008.

Indicative of the above possibilities are the flurry of high level Russian visits in the next three months before the Russian President’s visit. These include Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov and Secretary of Russian Security Council Nikolai Patrushev.

India’s political messages in terms of intent were articulated by Indian Defense Minister Antony in 2007 and again in 2008 and similarly reciprocated by Russian Defence Minister. Indian Defence Minister Antony is on record as follows:

“When we are improving our relations with United States and other countries, it does not mean at the cost of our old friendship. Friendship with Russia will continue and further increase and defence relations with Russia will further develop” (Moscow 2007, 7^th Annual Meeting of IRIGC-MTC).
“This is an important event not only between the Defence Ministries of the two countries but also a landmark event in our close and strategic bilateral relations and an important step in maintaining regional and global peace and security” (New Delhi, 2008, 8^th Annual Meeting of IRIGC-MTC).

So therefore, a marked buoyancy and vibrancy continues to exist at the highest political levels in nurturing the Russia-India Strategic Partnership.

Transformation of the Russia-India Military-Technical Cooperation Relationship

India’s rapid strides towards greater financial and technological strengths was bound to have an impact on the nature of the Russia-India Military-Technical Relationship. India was now better equipped and capable of joint-development and joint-production of advanced military hardware. Reflective of this has been the successful joint development and joint-production of the BRAHMOS cruise Missile, with many countries emerging as prospective buyers.

It was this which presumably prompted Indian Defense Minister Antony to assert after this current meeting, that: “We are taking our relationship forward from that of a vendor-seller to areas of design, development, co-production and co-marketing of military hardware” and further that “Both of us want to strengthen our relationship to make it more dynamic and expand to more areas”.

The more notable joint-development projects in this direction are as follows:

Fifth Generation Fighter Aircraft: Flight tests of prototype by 2009 and full production by 2015. Should enter Indian Air Force by 2017.
Military Transport Aircraft: To be jointly developed with Ilyushin
BRAHMOS Cruise Missile (Hypersonic Version): The present missile is a ‘supersonic’ version (2.8 Mach, Range 290 KM). Plans are being finalized to develop a “hypersonic” version (Mach 5-7)

Russia-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation

Though not directly linked with military-technical cooperation, Russia’s contribution in India’s civilian nuclear energy programme is an important component of the overall Russia-India Strategic Partnership.

Last year the Russians were ready with a Draft Agreement for construction of four additional reactors in addition to the two under construction at Kudankulum. India baulked at the last moment, seemingly, in deference to US sensitivities as the 123 Nuclear Deal had not been finalized at that stage.

Russia-India civilian nuclear energy cooperation can be expected to take-off in a big way during the Russian President’s forthcoming visit to India in December 2008.

Concluding Observations

India’s present ascendant trajectory in the global power-pecking order should prompt it to strike independent stances in its strategic relationships with the other great powers of the day as an equal stake holder in global affairs. It must position itself as a “strategically autonomous” power intent on bringing greater peace and stability in the world.

Having said that, it also remains to be said that in the pursuit of the above said objective and in the process of crafting new strategic relationships, India needs to be conscious that strategic partnerships to be meaningful and credible should be time-tested and based on long term strategic convergences and not strategic expediency.

The Russia-India Strategic Partnership has stood both the tests of the times and the touchstone of enduring credibility. Hence the nurturing of this relationship in a vibrant mode is in the best national security interests of both India and Russia.

(The author is an International Relations and Strategic Affairs analyst. He is the Consultant, Strategic Affairs with South Asia Analysis Group. Email:drsubhashkapila@yahoo.com)