BANGLADESH: Return of the Begums

BANGLADESH: Return of the Begums

By Bhaskar Roy

A constitutionally democratic country, Bangladesh is going through a peculiarly convoluted political process which, sometimes, defeats the imagination of the political analysts.

On January 11, 2007 the army conducted a coup which is now popularly called a “non-coup”, declaring Emergency rule through the caretaker government as the front. The people welcomed it as they were saved from BNP-Jamaat-e-Islami’s (JEI) diabolical plan to reduce the country to a fiefdom. After the first few months, however, the army-controlled caretaker government began to lose its way.

The priority of the armed forces, led by army Chief of Staff Moeen U. Ahmed, was to cleanse the political system, get rid of corrupt politicians, and bring in honest and dedicated political parties and politicians to run the country. This was obviously asking for too much. From position of No.7 from the bottom of a list of corrupt countries (of the Transparency International (TI) a European NGO of repute) the effort to root out corruption was dead from the start. Corruption is a matter of degree, and no country is free from it. India’s position has been somewhere between the 70^th and 80^th in the last few years according to TI. China, a communist country is equally bad. In fact, Bangladesh under the army controlled caretaker government, saw the army getting immensely corrupt.

A large number of politicians, including the heads of the two major political parties, Begum Khaleda Zia of BNP and Sk. Hasina of Awami League, were put behind bars on numerous corruption charges. Now Khaleda Zia has been released on bail from almost all the cases, but Sk. Hasina still has to get bail in three more cases to take part in politics.

Using the Directorate General of Forces Intelligence (DGFI), Bangladesh’s equivalent of Pakistan’s ISI, the army succeeded in factionalising the BNP and rendered it weak. Khaleda’s notorious elder son, Tareque Rehman, Senior Joint General Secretary of the BNP, was released from jail on the condition he would not indulge in politics for at least three years. Tareque resigned from his party post and has moved to the UK for medical treatment.

Evidence suggests that Sk. Hasina is being pressured to agree that some of her close relatives like Sk. Selim are also rusticated from practicing politics, before she is allowed freedom to become politically active. This is a difficult task. The family is large, and its members are direct descendants of Sk. Mujibur Rahman, the country’s liberator. Also, efforts by the DGFI to break up the Awami League did not succeed, though they made some inroads among some Awami League top leadership.

The detractors of the Awami Leagaue among the powers that be, miscalculated. No senior leader of the party who broke away has succeeded in forming a viable political centre. The Awami League is a tradition in the country unlike the BNP, which was cobbled together by Ziaur Rehman in 1978 with opportunists and anti-liberation forces. Some in the party would like to see Sk. Hasina go and choose a new leader, but the party is sacrosanct.

But with allurements that Sk. Hasina may finally leave politics or be debarred from politics, factions have been created in the Awami League. However, the rank and file of the party sees Sk. Hasina as the daughter of Sk. Mujib, popularly known as Bangabandhu, and their only leader.

The caretaker government has just declared December 18 as the date for the 9^th Parliament (Jatiyo Sangshod) elections. Hence, there is a sudden urgency among the political parties to set their houses in order. On the other hand, the caretaker government, which has far exceeded its constitutional term through emergency rule has to set things right against any future legal actions against them. This includes the armed forces.

It is difficult to say with certainty how much unanimity exists among the Advisors of the caretaker government and the military top brass backing it. Further, are the Advisors to the caretaker government politically and ideologically neutral?

The manner in which politics in Bangladesh has been proceeding from around March 2007 suggests flip-flops on policies and strategies. The question is how to bring back political governance, what kind of political structure, if anything new at all, and when to hold the elections.

Army Chief Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed came out with his theory of, “Democracy with Bangladeshi characteristics”. He even published a compilation of his speeches on the subject in a book form. One is still not clear what Gen. Moeen was thinking, but his thoughts apparently did not mature. Going over his speeches, it appears the General wanted a political system with strict accountability and free of corruption. He, however, seems to have retreated from political ambitions.

After a lot of dithering, the Chief Advisor or de facto prime Minister, Dr. Fakruddin Ali Ahmed announced December 18, this year, the election date to the 9^th Parliament. There are skeptics who feel that problems within the major political parties, historical acrimony between them, and differences between them and the caretaker government could derail the time table.

The caretaker government must ensure that the skeptics are not proved correct. But the manner in which this interim government and administration went about to cleanse the political system of corrupt leaders, and the situation they have got themselves into now, leaves much to be desired. They may have sown the seeds for potential instability, which demand immediate remedial measures.

More than six hundred politicians including a handful of businessmen and bureaucrats were arrested for corruption. In some cases businessmen were coerced to file cases against some top politicians. Now, many of these politicians are being released on bail so that they can move the political process towards elections. On the other hand some other politicians are sought to be banned from elections because of corruption.

Inspired by South Africa’s Bishop Tutu, the Truth and Accountability Commission (TAC) was set up. The TAC opened a door to the corrupt to declare ill gotten gains, pay a fine, and be free. The sprit of this may encourage corruption, and redemption through a fine - a type of legal bribe to the government. On the other hand, the anti-corruption commission (ACC), another body set up by the caretaker government, is at its wit’s end on how to genuinely proceed with their work. At the moment, it appears, the interim government is trying to force the ACC pick and chose politicians against whom they can proceed. Corruption has been made a political issue, not a legal one.

In an open move, the interim government is trying to coerce Sk. Hasina and Khaleda Zia to sit together and sort out political differences. This is an unwise move, and can lead to more problems. The rank and file of the Awami League will be highly disappointed, and even resent, such a meeting. With the BNP factionalised by the caretaker government’s machination through intelligence agencies, Begum Khaleda may well agree. Is the aim to pressure Sk. Hasina for a such meeting to factionalise the Awami League?

The “minus two” formula to debar both Khaleda and Hasina from politics have been put on the back burner. The current strategy is to weaken them by selectively punishing their close family and supporters. This is a lop sided approach. The biggest cultprits like Tareque Rehman, have been allowed a sabbatical from politics for three years. Politicians involved with Islamic terrorist organizations like the Jamaatul-Mujahideen Bangladesh (JMB) and HUJI remain free of terrorism charges. The influence of the Jamaat-e-Islami(JEI) is palpable.

Hence, the issue of ideological inclinations and political connections among the advisors to the caretaker government. For example, Maj.Gen.(Retd) M.A.Matin, Advisor for Home Affairs, published a book while holding this position, which replicate Al-Qaeda’s ideological diatrible against the Jews and Christians in the framework of Hindus. Matin viciously attacked Hindus of having persecuted Muslims in the subcontinent for more than a century. The composition of the council of Advisors would most likely influence the politics of the country in the coming weeks or months.

There is a lingering problem hovering over Bangladesh’s politics which may have some impact on the coming elections. There is the issue of the war of liberation, the role of the Pakistan collaboration who have congealed into the JEI and the faction of Islamic Oyiko Jote (IOJ) Nizami faction which is part of the BNP-JEI four party alliance, and the issue of war criminals. This goes back to the assassination of Sk. Mujibur Rahman on August 15, 1975 and the November 1975 jail killing which wiped out the cream of the Awami League and the country’s leadership.

The caretaker government, obviously under the initiative of Gen. Moeen, reinstituted Sk. Mujib’s assassination day as a national holiday and a national mourning day. Full honours were paid by the three services chiefs and the Chief Advisor at the slain leader’s grave in Tungipara. Sk. Mujib’s older daughter, Sk. Hasina, could not visit his grave, being incarcerated in jail. This would suggest that the anti-liberation forces forced a compromise to at least ensure Sk. Hasina’s public profile at Tungipara at this historical commemoration was kept away from the public.

The two Begums cannot agree on this issue. The BNP’s agenda is against Sk. Mujib, and they have collaborated with the JEI’s position on Sk. Mujib and the liberation war. After all, president Zia-ur-Reheman, the founder of the BNP in 1978, also brought the anti-liberation forces like the Razakars, the Al Badrs and the Al Shams in the form of the present JEI, to support the BNP. In the interim period of the extended caretaker government, the JEI gained substantially. And this was not without some helping hand from a section of the interim government.

The entire Bangladeshi political spectrum has entered a critical phase. Sk. Hasina and the Awami League would have to take some firm decisions on their alignments and coalition. Internal differences have to be buried, at least for the time being. Sk. Hasina will have to be much more mature in her political inclinations, and not flirt with those who have a track record of anti-liberation activities for short term gains.

The responsibility for a stable and inclusive Bangladesh lies with the people of Bangladesh, the progressive political parties, and the armed forces led by Gen. Moeen U. Ahmed. The army has done what it could from “1/11”, but lost its way. This proved the armed forces are trained for their job. Leave politics to politicians.

But Bangladesh is likely to continue to suffer from volatile politics unless the root cases are resolved. These include the role of the anti-liberation forces in 1971, prosecution of Sk. Mujibur Rehman’s killers and those who were involved in the November, 1975 jail killings, and setting the history right on Sk. Mujibur Rehman, President Ziaur Rehman, and the issue of the JEI.

(The author is an eminent analyst with many years of experience. He can be reached at grouchohart@yahoo.com)