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15-Aug-2008
NEPAL: Red Star Over Kathmandu Update No. 169
By Dr. S.Chandrasekharan.
This evening, the Constituent Assembly of Nepal elected the Maoist leader Prachanda alias Pushpa Kuma Dahal as the first Prime Minister of the republic defeating the Nepali Congress candidate and former Prime minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. Out of 551 votes cast, 437 voted for the Maoist leader.
In one sense, the election of a Prime minister after four months of elections brings to an end the drama that was played out by various political leaders in Nepal. It was expected and it became clear some days ago that leftists both the Maoists and the UML would join hands ultimately to consolidate a leftist alliance thus isolating the centrist Nepali Congress. The Maoists were considerably helped by the Terai based MJF who by joining the Maoists and the UML think that they would be able to get justice and an end to the discrimination of the Terains in all walks of life. This remains to be seen although both the Maoists and the MJF are looking for a complete restructuring of the State.
With the elections of the Maoists, the non Maoist "left democratic alliance" forged by the Nepali Congress, the UML and the MJF can be considered to be as good as dead. As I had said earlier, it was an unnatural and incongruous alliance which could not have lasted long.
The Nepali Congress would have joined the alliance had it not been for the stubborn refusal of the Maoists to give the defence Portfolio to them They would not have put up a candidate either who at any rate would have lost.
One wonders why the Nepali Congress was equally stubborn to get the defence portfolio at the cost of getting isolated when it was getting clear that the UML was inching closer to the Maoists to have the final embrace.
Their misgivings were many and the question of integration of the PLA with the regular army was still hanging fire. Dr. Ram Sharan Mahat of Nepali Congress said " They ( Maoists) want the institution ( Nepal Army) to collapse through heavy infiltration of politically indoctrinated personnel. Another objection is that the Maoists cannot lead their own army and the Nepalese army as well. Despite assurances, they have not dismantled their para military structure nor have they returned the seized properties. ( Only two days ago, the Maoist leadership decided that those elected to the CA will not hold any post in their PLA)
The draft CPM of the Maoists has mentioned that the integration will be completed within 3 to 6 months.
The comprehensive peace agreement between the Maoists and the State unfortunately makes no mention of the issue of integration the PLA.
The Army itself is opposed to merge politically indoctrinated combatants. Their contention was and continues to be that verified Maoist combatants roughly 19,000 in number ( this is almost one fifth of the Army’s strength) can be taken on an individual and merit basis but they have to go through standard procedures.
A day earlier the three parties the CPN ( Maoist), the CPN ( UML) and the MJF reached a seven point agreement on power sharing and government functioning. It was also decided that Maoists will get nine ministers, the UML six, the MJF four and the other fringe parties the ML, Jan Morcha, CPN (United) and the Sadhbhavana one each.
The three parties would draft a CMP ( Common Minimum Programme), a code of conduct and the modus operandi for governance. A high level political coordination would also be constituted. It was also decided that the seven point agreement reached among the seven parties in June 2007 would also be immediately implemented
There was also an understanding on the distribution of portfolios. However this may see some alterations as there were differences among the three parties even this morning thus delaying the election of the Prime minister by an hour and a half.
Maoists: Defence, Finance, Peace & reconstruction, Physical Planning & works, Education & Sports, land reforms & management, Labour & transport management, Law, Justice. Parliamentary and Youth ministries.
UML: Deputy Prime ministership, Home, Water resources, Foreign affairs, Local development, Tourism, forest and Soil conservation.
MJF: Information & Communication, Agriculture, Co-operation, Industry & Commerce, Supplies, Women & Children and Social Welfare.
The Maoists have kept the defence, finance, land reforms and labour which would help them in pushing forward their ideological agenda.
The Maoists should be happy to et rid of the Home portfolio which is perhaps the trickiest and most difficult. With the country having bandh every day at some place or another ( see nepalbandh.com), it is going to be tough for them.
The MJF will have a ready-made problem as the valley is without fuel, power, gas or water. With MJF incharge at least the Terai will not stop supplies coming from India as was happening before.
The government will have the requisite two thirds majority to push through the reforms and also the new constitution. Thus the Nepali Congress has a very heavy responsibility now, though they do not have the numbers by themselves to have an impact on the constitution making. They have lost and are isolated now but they have the resilience to get out of the hole they have brought themselves into. They will have to see that the government that will be dominated by the leftists do not go for a far too radical an agenda that could create more problems than what they are supposed to solve!
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