Note no. 464	10-Aug.-2008
NEPAL: Maoists Fail to Meet the Deadline to Form a Consensus Government- What Next? Update No. 168 By Dr. S. Chandrasekharan. Despite an extension of three days given by the President on their request, the Maoists failed to form a government with the support of all the parties and the deadline was over by the night of 8th August, 2008. The President has no choice but to approach the Constitutional Assembly to elect a government under Article 38 (2) of the interim constitution. This would mean an open invitation by the President to the constituent assembly to elect a Prime Minister by a simple majority. The President did speak to the leaders of the four main political parties, the two communist parties- the Maoists and the UML, the Nepali Congress and the MJF on 9th August but it was of no avail. There was an appalling suggestion from a legal luminary who perhaps understands Nepali politics more than many others that the President could bring the country under “President’s rule” to overcome the impasse. Firstly, it is totally outside the purview of the interim constitution. Secondly, this will side line the most important objective and that is- the framing of a new constitution. Ever since the direction of the President, the Maoists have been trying rather desperately to form a government. Their central committee decided on 1st of August, to go for a post election unity government by seeking the support of all the 25 parties. They made out a fifty-point common minimum programme (CMP) and offered to discuss the points with all other parties. The CMP was similar to their election manifesto with slight changes but was rejected outright by the Nepali Congress and the UML. Then a four-party task committee was formed to discuss the issues and come to a consensus on the ministry. This committee failed not on the CMP but on division of portfolios as the Nepali Congress continued to claim the Defence Ministry. The contention of the Maoists was that the Prime Minister’s party, as has been the practice, should have all the three main portfolios- Defence, Home and Finance. To allay the fears of other parties, Prachanda on 6th August issued a statement that he has instructed the party rank and file to dismantle the YCL and return all private and public property seized during the conflict to the rightful owners as per the agreements reached with the government. Two of the YCL camps in the “Meen Bhavan” right in the heart of Kathmandu were vacated but nothing else happened and it is business as usual for the YCL. Soon after the central committee meeting on 1st August, K.B.Mahara the party’s spokesman said that the Maoists had four options. Those were 1. Forming a national government with the support of all parties. ( This is what they were trying.) 2. If not, the Maoists will form a government with the support of one of the other three major parties. ( They had the UML in mind. This would also mean the breakup of the left democratic non Maoist alliance formed on the eve of the presidential elections. But for once, and perhaps for the time being, the UML is sticking to their stand that they would not join the government without the Nepali Congress) 3. Form a minority government. 4. Sit in the opposition. There is a fifth option for the Maoists. They could let the UML form a government and they could support such a government either from inside or outside. In such a situation the Nepali Congress will have no option but to support them again either from outside or join the government. The first two options are not available. If one goes by what happened in the presidential and vice-presidential elections, option 3 is also out. That leaves them with only option 4 and this is not a happy situation though media reports indicate that G.P.Koirala ever since his return from the SAARC meeting and a brief stop over in Delhi where he met the Indian leaders has been meeting all the non Maoist parties to form a government without the Maoists. It is said that G.P.Koirala met Jhalanath Khanal the Secretary of UML and asked the latter to explore the possibility of forming a non Maoist government. G.P. also stressed the need to maintain the alliance of the Nepali Congress, the UML and the Madhesis. Khanal in response is said to have requested G.P. to show more flexibility to find a meeting point on the issue of portfolio distribution. It is being widely circulated in the valley that G.P’s sudden activism on his return from Delhi to form a “non Maoist” government has the blessings of Delhi. This is very unlikely as the Indian leaders cannot be that foolish to give such an advice! The Maoists hold more than one third of the seats in the assembly and no motion can be passed in the assembly with two thirds majority if the Maoists are opposed to it. A non Maoist government will not be able to bring the peace process to a conclusion for a lasting peace and the Constituent Assembly will not be able to write a new constitution within the stipulated time of two years either. A national unity government is still the best option and it could be done even now.
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